If you ask an Indian what the quintessentially Indian beverage is, most of them will probably respond with tea or chai (but not chai tea). Over half the tea in India comes from one place - a state in northeastern India named Assam. Assam accounts for about 15 percent of the tea produced in the world and more than half of that which is produced from India.
Though most Indians can agree about the superiority of Assamese tea, fewer agree about the politics of the region. Assam, like a few other Indian states, has elections coming up that will run from March 27th through April 6th and they’re proving to be somewhat tighter than initially expected.
There are three main alliances in these elections - the BJP led one, the Congress led one, and a third one unaffiliated with either major party. The BJP is fighting for its second consecutive term - in 2016, it won its first in a blowout victory going from 26 to 86 seats whereas the Congress went from 78 to 26. Before that, the Congress won three consecutive elections in 2001, 2006, and 2011 under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi.
The 2014 Lok Sabha polls saw a saffron wave across India and Assam. The BJP won 4 seats in 2009 to the Congress’s 7 but in 2014, the BJP won 7 and the Congress only 4. They smelled blood in the water and the 2016 campaign was especially important. It started after 2014 and was nicknamed Mission 84 - the idea being that 84 seats would be enough for a ⅔ victory and that they performed better than the Congress in around 70 seats so an additional ten or so was no big leap. Another important part of the campaign was defections - the BJP bagged a former Congress minister and Gogoi confidante - Himanta Biswa Sarma who joined the party because he felt disrespected in the Congress. He felt he would get a better deal in the BJP and wouldn’t have to play second fiddle to the Gogoi family.
The campaign itself featured visits from top politicians across the country. Then Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi made an appearance as did BJP heavyweights like Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Modi also announced the alliance between the BJP and a regional political party called the Bodoland People’s Front. Due to dissatisfaction with the Congress, the Modi magic, and illegal immigration as a campaign topic, the BJP was able to establish their first government in Assam in alliance with the BPF as well as the Assam Gano Parishad.
For 2021 the campaign is shaping up over similar issues but the alliances are a bit different. On one side is the ruling BJP alliance led by Chief Minister Sarbanand Sondhowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma and on the other is the Congress led alliance helmed by the son of Tarun Gogoi, Gaurav Gogoi and the current head of the Opposition in the State Assembly, Debabrata Saikia. The latter alliance has added new members since 2016 - the Bodoland People’s Front which was a part of the BJP led alliance in 2016 has joined the Congress. Additionally, the All India United Democratic Front, a party first condemned as communal but later accepted by Tarun Gogoi, will be a part of the Congress led alliance this time around.
The million dollar question is whether this will be enough and the answer is: probably not. In the 2019 general election, the BJP bagged 9 seats in Assam, the Congress took 3, and the AIUDF took only one. However, the Congress led alliance had thought the Citizenship Amendment Act would be the biggest issue in the state.
The Citizenship Amendment Act is a controversial piece of legislation, passed by the BJP led central government promising to give citizenship to Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, and other religious minorities from surrounding countries with the exception of Muslims. Assam has a Muslim population of around 30 percent and when the legislation passed in December 2019, it set off weeks of protests, led to the formation of new political parties, and the common wisdom was that it was going to be controversial in the 2021 election.
However, this has not been the case. Despite the opposition to the CAA as well the deep seated ethnic politics of the region, reporting on the ground suggests that many voters aren’t as interested in this issue despite the fiery protests from two years ago. This is despite the National Register of Citizens being complete in Assam and more than 19 lakh citizens of the region being left off the register. The BJP has run a different campaign in Assam than in West Bengal - where CAA has been a hot topic. In Assam, CAA didn’t even make it into the party manifesto. Instead, the BJP has focused on development and it looks like it’s working out.
For instance, the BJP is pointing to a cash scheme it launched for women where tens of thousands are getting hundreds of rupees each month as part of the Orunodoi scheme. The BJP has promised to raise the amount to 3000 rupees which has earned it new fans across the state. Beyond this, the BJP also relaunched the Swami Vivekananda Assam Youth Empowerment (SVAYEM) scheme to provide money to young people to start business ventures in the state to address unemployment and help provide self-employment.
The Congress led alliance has gone a different route with their manifesto. They have five major planks - government jobs, funding for women, wages for tea garden workers, free electricity, and lastly, legislation against the CAA. The last plank is an especially big deal in the manifesto - the Congress has promised that if it is voted to power, it will build a memorial to commemorate the protesters who died in the 2019 anti-CAA protests.
These elections have seen a number of appeals from Indian leaders - BJP stalwarts like Home Minister Amit Shah and Assam Cabinet Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma have led rallies. Congress has also brought their own star power - from former Rajasthan Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Polling has been somewhat inconclusive - a common trend in Indian elections. The average prediction is that the BJP led alliance will lose a few seats but will still finish ahead of the Congress led alliance.
Last week, we wrote about how the West Bengal polls were more about the 2024 general election than they were about the actual state government. In this case, that’s not exactly true - the BJP already has a solid majority of Assam’s seats in the Lok Sabha. This election is more about making the BJP more of a pan India party - like the Congress was in the early years of independent India. The BJP’s 2016 victory in Assam was their first in a wave of victories in northeast India that ended with them currently holding the Chief Ministerships of all 8 northeast Indian states. Can they repeat their performance in Assam? Probably - and that also says something about what we can expect in the rest of the region in the years to come.
As always, thanks for reading. We’ll see you next week for a look at elections in Tamil Nadu.
Further Reading on the elections in Assam:
BJP to make Assam infiltration and flood free, says Home Minister Amit Shah - Economic Times
No Decision Yet on Nationwide NRC: Government in Rajya Sabha - The Wire
Bridges, roads & medical colleges — the massive Modi infra push that could help BJP in Assam - The Print
Ground Report: In Upper Assam, Voters Are Torn Between Choosing a Candidate or a Party - The Wire
No mass leader, unclear party message — Congress's national problem is also its Assam problem - The Print
For Assam voters, CAA isn't priority & ethnic identity issues have faded into background - The Print
Assam assembly elections: Himanta Biswa Sarma urges people to vote for progress, prosperity of state - Times of India
How The BJP Scores Big By Listing Out Flood Control And Other Welfare Measures In Manifesto - Swarajya Magazine
Assam assembly polls 2021: Vote for Congress to overcome five-year setback to Assamese society, says Dr Manmohan - Times of India
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