Elections in Tamil Nadu: The struggle for relevance
The southernmost state dances to its own tune
Socialism, Tamil identity, and a strong preference for local party politics over national parties have defined politics in the southernmost state of Tamil Nadu for a long time. For the past forty-plus years two parties have vied for dominance in the state: The DMK and the AIADMK. Both parties arose from the Dravidian social movement to champion the cause of Tamil identity against linguistic and political imposition from the North in post-independence India. From 1991 to 2016 governance of Tamil Nadu swung between the DMK patriarch and the AIADMK matriarch, M. Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. Both were revered as god-like figures among their supporters, with Jayalithaa receiving the moniker of “Amma” (mother). But since the passing of these two figures in the past few years, the fortunes of the dravidian parties and the state itself have been in flux, as the Congress and BJP vie for relevance in a state that has always kept ‘the North’ at bay.
The quest for electoral power aside, the platforms of both major parties appear to be fairly similar. Combined with the cults of personality that form around party leaders, electoral politics in Tamil Nadu tend to be less about development in favor of freebies like color televisions, bicycles, and smart phones to entice voters. Seesawing electoral dynamics are such that during one election the DMK looks to be all but done in the state, yet only two years later the AIADMK’s electoral performance was just as abysmal.
Still, the AIADMK has been in power for close to a decade, and the DMK is determined to make a comeback after a decade on the opposition benches. For the 2021 Assembly Elections the DMK is contesting 173 seats to the AIADMK’s 179. The DMK has formed an alliance with the Indian National Congress while the AIADMK is in alliance with the BJP. A number of smaller parties have also joined either alliance or are running candidates independently.
Although constantly on the back foot in Tamil Nadu the BJP has remained unfazed in its desire for political relevance in the state. It’s national status and the tendency for Tamil politicians to play the underdog hamstrings the BJP’s reputation, forcing it to ally itself with the AIADMK. For the AIADMK its embrace of the BJP has been a mixed bag. There was a time when AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa was a king-maker in New Delhi, but no more. Anti-incumbency sentiment against Prime Minister Modi and agitation towards his government’s policies hurt both the BJP and AIADMK during the 2019 general election.
To shed itself of the ‘outsider’ image the BJP has tried to play to Tamil Nadu’s unique brand of celebrity politics by honoring film superstar Rajinikanth who has lent the BJP support in the past. Despite his sitting out the election, the BJP hopes to capitalize on ‘thalaiva’s’ glory. While it remains a longshot during 2021 as it contests 20 seats in Tamil Nadu (out of 234 total), that the BJP is committed to the long-game in Tamil Nadu is without question.
The AIADMK also has a possible spoiler to contend with in the form of the AMMK, named after AIADMK Supremo Jayalalitha, and led by TTV Dhinakaran who was expelled from AIADMK. Dhinakaran is positioning himself and his party as the true heirs to former CM Jayalalitha, and she adorns the party’s flag as their symbol.
The same calculus of coalition building and horse-trading applies to the Congress Party and the DMK, as the Congress has been allotted 25 seats by its partner the DMK. There was some feeling among DMK voters that their party’s closeness to Congress caused them to lose in 2016 despite coming very close. This time the DMK has reduced Congress’s share of seats and ensured that smaller parties in their alliance are not overlooked.
Another film star who has entered the fray is Kamal Haasan, who started the MNM party as an alternative to DMK and AIADMK. Tamil Nadu has a long history of elevating film stars to the Chief Minister’s office, and while Haasan may harbor national ambitions, he’s currently focused on winning just a few seats to prove his bona-fides to the voters.
The topline issues for the election are social welfare, healthcare, and economic progress in the wake of COVID-19, which resulted in a labour shortage in TN’s industrial sector. All parties have promised various incentives and breaks for industries as part of their electoral manifestos, but have to walk a fine line between being seen as too pro-business vs appeasing labor and environmental groups. 2018 saw violent protests over a copper plant which eventually shut down, and is still a thorn in the side of the ruling AIADMK. Chief Minister Edappapdi Palaniswami has received high marks for managing the COVID-19 crisis fairly well, which has given the AIADMK hope.
Caste and Religion will also play a role in the election as there are numerous parties formed on religious and communitarian lines, and the major players hope to entice typical voters of those parties into voting for their candidates. The caste based parties typically demand a greater share of jobs via affirmative action schemes, or freebies via social welfare schemes. Previously successful anti-Hindi, pro-Dravidian messaging only works as long as they don’t alienate the non-Dravidian minorities of Tamil Nadu who have also become socially aware. Alliances made today are easily broken tomorrow for the sake of consolidating power.
The polls in Tamil Nadu officially open on April 6, and the feeling on the ground is that the DMK will return to power due to an anti-incumbency groundswell, as well as general discontent at the BJP. Tamil Nadu’s significance for the BJP’s future on the national stage is less important than that of Bengal, as TN has always been a tougher nut to crack, and the state dances to it’s own tune. The top contenders for the Chief Ministerial seat are not the larger than life giants of yesteryear, so it’s harder to predict who the average voter ‘feels’ for. Opinion poll averages indicate the AIADMK can hope for a decent (but not good) showing of 78+ seats, while the DMK is projected to win at least 150 seats. The question is how much of a disaster will the election be for the AIADMK. A major loss could mean a permanent split in the party, and there have been rumblings that the CM and Deputy-CM are not the best of partners. Post-defeat the AMMK could position itself as the ‘true Dravidian’ party and bleed off the AIADMK cadre while the BJP would fill the gap and insert its brand of nationalist politics to draw in voters for future fights.
This election is less about the 2024 general polls than it is about the establishment of the BJP brand in a previously inhospitable region. For much of the party’s history, including recently, it has been seen as a party for the Hindu heartland - it’s been strong in places like Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat yet failed to establish itself in the east and the south. That first part has changed - the BJP is much stronger in the northeast and has been putting up quite the fight in West Bengal but the South has remained a pipe dream. Doing well in this election or even putting up a serious fight can start to solve that problem by demonstrating the appeal of more nationalistic and religious politics. It remains to be seen if it will work but depending on the results here and in the southern state of Kerala which we’ll cover next week, there may be a formula for a new pan-India party.
Additional reading on the elections in Tamil Nadu:
M. Karunanidhi: Democrat and Patriarch - Indian Express
Jayaram Jayalalitha, powerful Indian politician who broke gender barriers, dies at 68 - Washington Post
The Road to Tamil Nadu Elections 2021 - DT Next
Will BJP Break into Tamil Nadu this time? - Deccan Herald
In Tamil Nadu, It Isn't Just the BJP Which Struggles With the Core Values of Tamil Identity - The Wire
How a new wave of caste mobilisation is shaping Tamil Nadu politics - India Today
The tussle for the Christian vote in Kerala - Indian Express
Tamil Nadu: A State that is Stalin’s to lose - Hindustan Times
What we’re reading this week
China's Unrestricted War on India - Brahma Chellaney
India Should Use the Market to Speed Up Covid-19 Vaccinations - Bloomberg
Hindoo History - A substack on the history of news coverage of India and Hinduism in the West