West Bengal is a state in eastern India with around 90 million people and like a few other states, it’s got elections coming up on March 27th. The big question this time around relates to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee - will her Trinamool Congress Party be able to stop the Modi-led BJP?
The relevance of West Bengal to national politics cannot be understated. For the ruling BJP, West Bengal has always been the elusive prize in their quest to rebuff the perception of being a ‘cow-belt’ party. Winning West Bengal would be a feather in the BJP’s cap to project themselves as the party of development and hope for all Indians. A key victory in 2021 would also indicate likely success for the BJP in the 2024 General Elections.
The motto adopted by the BJP for the West Bengal campaign has been ‘ashol poriborton’ - promising ‘real change’ for a state that has been in decline for decades under successive left-wing governments. Buoyed by minor electoral gains, and key defections by local leaders the BJP hopes 2021 is the year when the lotus will finally bloom in Bengal.
For Banerjee, victory in the assembly elections would mean continued rule of a state she has governed for a decade. Defeating the BJP would also raise her profile on the national stage as the top non-Congress, anti-BJP leader, and a possible Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2024 elections.
West Bengal’s politics have always been chaotic - even in a country used to political violence, the region stands out for its unique history of protests, agitations, and electoral violence. From the mid 1970s until the mid 2000s, the state was dominated by the Indian Left - the Communist Party of India (Marxist) regularly beat their opponents by massive margins. But complacency breeds competition, and in 2011 the incumbent government lost over 100 seats due to corruption and widespread agitations.
One of the biggest agitations came from a land dispute in Nandigram. The government wanted to help a business set up shop in a rural area by expropriating farmer land. Due to widespread protests however, the government was forced to look for land elsewhere. The region remained under the control of protesters and in March 2007, police officers fired on the protesters and several died. The violence flared up again in November of that same year with the Communist Chief Minister terming it a payback of sorts. The Nandigram movement became a part of Banerjee’s political identity and was vital to her winning campaign in 2011.
That election swept the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to power - they won 184 seats and the victory was so massive that the Communist Chief Minister lost his seat by more than 10,000 votes. Generally speaking, since 2011, she cleaned up on the state and federal level - in the 2014 federal elections, she won 34 of the 42 parliamentary seats and in the 2016 assembly elections, she won 211 of the 294 seats.
However, in the 2019 general elections the saffron wave hit West Bengal and she only won 22 seats with the BJP claiming 18. The cold war between the BJP and the TMC became hot as Banerjee’s support seemed to be on shaky ground. One of the bigger developments are all the different defections - primarily from the TMC to the BJP. The most notable of these is a guy named Suvendu Adhikari - he was a cabinet minister in West Bengal from 2016 to 2020. Additionally, he was a member of the legislative assembly of West Bengal from 2006-09 and 2011-20. During his second round in the legislature, he actually represented Nandigram (he was one of the leaders of the mid 2000s agitation over there). Adhikari’s defection to the BJP was more about him sensing the shifts in the political wind, and indicative of dissatisfaction among TMC rank and file with Banerjee showing favor to her own family.
He has since said he’s going to contest his old seat and after being challenged to do so as well, Banerjee has signaled that she too will contest from Nandigram. Beyond Adhikari, there are other defectors as well on both the state and federal levels and some of them have even been given election tickets for 2021 which has led to some annoyance from those in the BJP who have been waiting their turn.
As Banerjee is in the political fight of her life, it’s no surprise that she chose to run for re-election from Nandigram to remind voters of her image as the underdog standing up to the ‘outsider’ BJP. How well that strategy will work this time around is unclear given that she has spent a decade in power.
Major industrial regions like Howrah, Hooghly, and Kolkata are also places to watch. Currently, they are represented in the state assembly by Banerjee and her allies. However, there is a chance they flip to the BJP due to the government’s pro-business moves across the country.
Although no one knows for sure what’s going to happen (and Indian pollsters tend to be wrong to the delight of the media), the general prediction is the BJP will finish a strong second to the TMC. Though there is some quibbling as to whether the former will break 100 seats, it seems clear that they’ll do much better than they did in 2016. If so, West Bengal will be a battleground in the 2024 General Election.
In a way, that is the real story here - Bengal and the rest of the elections this year are as much about 2024 as they are about their respective states. Even with its star campaigners including the ever-popular Prime Minister Modi, and a strong grassroots operation on the ground the BJP can afford to lose a state or two in the next few years. But for the anti-Modi brigade, this could be their last stand before 2024 ‘saffronizes’ all of India.
That’s all for this week - thanks for reading! We’ll be back next week with a look at elections in Assam.
Further Reading on the elections in West Bengal:
How the Bengali bhadralok went from pride to shame – Times of India
The significance of the Bengal election for the key players – ORF Online
What's Determining the BJP's Prospects in West Bengal? – The Wire
Marked change in Mamata's manifesto amid BJP surge, CM promises slew of direct cash schemes – The Print
Deep Dive | The long trail of political violence in West Bengal – India Today
14 years of Nandigram violence: Ahead of Kolkata rally, Mamata says will fight against 'anti-Bengal forces' – New Indian Express
Battleground Bengal: Decoding The BJP's Strategy Of Fielding MPs In Assembly Polls – Swarajya Magazine
For BJP, Bengal is within reach, and Kerala, Tamil Nadu doors are opening – Deccan Herald
All Hail Queen Banerjee – Foreign Policy
What else we’re reading:
Aman Thakker of Indialogue on The Quad
Nathan Punwani on India’s farm reforms